Latest from Surplus Energy Economics

#277: At the limits of monetary possibility

HOW DOES THIS END? On two occasions in modern times, central banks have found themselves obligated to pour huge amounts of newly-created money into the system. The first instance was the global financial crisis of 2008-09, and the second was the coronavirus pandemic of 2020-21. Neither of these events was anticipated, though the first one…

by drtimmorgan

#276: The Worthington Factor

PLANNING FOR A CONTRACTING ECONOMY I still have vivid recollections of my first experience of driving in a big city – in my case, London – where the volume, speed and aggression of traffic was outside all my prior rural and small-town motoring experience. The collective attitude seemed to be: “I may not know where…

by drtimmorgan

#275: Why are we surprised by the inevitable?

ALIGNING EXPECTATION WITH POSSIBILITY Why is the world at large so often “surprised” when the materially impossible doesn’t happen? In economics, the consensus line – a narrative shared by government, business and, for the most part, the general public – is that the economy will carry on growing as we shift from climate-harming fossil fuels…

by drtimmorgan

#274: The elusive pursuit of trust

GOVERNMENT AND ECONOMIC INFLEXION There’s nothing new about conspiracy theories – we’ve long been invited to believe that the security services assassinated JFK, or that the Moon landing was faked, or that Elvis is alive and well and working in a supermarket somewhere – and most of us have always given short shrift to such…

by drtimmorgan

#273: Systemic jeopardy

THE COMING FINANCIAL CRASH One question, above all others, has dominated our recent discussions here. This is the issue of whether the financial system will fracture as the underlying “real” or material economy inflects from growth into contraction. Has some kind of chaotic reset – either contractionary or hyperinflationary – become inevitable? Are we –…

by drtimmorgan

#272: “Peak almost everything”, part two

WINNERS AND LOSERS It’s been said that “horse-sense” is the innate wisdom that prevents horses from putting bets on human beings. I’m not a betting man myself, but we can all see the benefits that must accrue from knowing the outcome of a race before any wagers have even been placed. Those benefits can be…

by drtimmorgan

#271: “Peak almost everything”, part one

WORSENING STRESSES IN AN INFLECTING ECONOMY As almost everyone must have noticed by now, economic and broader affairs are in a strange state of uneasy limbo. The economy certainly hasn’t ‘collapsed’, as some pundits have long been predicting, but neither is it growing, in any meaningful sense. Conditions are characterised by worsening hardship and widening…

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by drtimmorgan

#270: Normalising money and value

EXPLORING THE TRANSACTIONAL CURVE Why has the global economy become credit-addicted, and why has a post-capitalist kleptocracy replaced the market economy? Why is the much-vaunted transition to EVs decelerating, and why are the costs of renewable energy development rising? Can we really achieve nil-net-cost net zero, switching to more climate-friendly energy sources without becoming poorer…

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by drtimmorgan

#269: How will “exorbitant privilege” end?

THE WHY AND HOW OF DE-DOLLARIZATION As America’s public debt spirals ever further out of control – and with the expanding BRICS+ group working on a common trading currency and a rival settlement system – the question of de-dollarizing the global financial system is becoming a hot topic. We need to look at this issue,…

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by drtimmorgan